We are often asked for our outlook on silver, but not based upon cyclical or technical analysis. Rather, we are asked for a fundamental outlook primarily based upon factors such as silver’s cost of production and world supply and demand. So we look to David Morgan, an advisor that we (and others) consider as the leading analyst for silver. The following is David’s interview carried in the latest edition of the “Bull and Bear.” It is an informative interview containing significant and timely information about the silver market. We believe that you will know much more about the current market after having read it. In our opinion, it is one of the best overviews on silver available.
Silver is an absolute bargain right now says David Morgan. “Silver is an absolute bargain right now. Using our metric of the TRUE MONEY SUPPLY, if you are able to buy silver for US$16.32 or less as of April 2015, that is equivalent to buying silver near the five-dollar level that prevailed more than a decade ago. We will expand on this statement even further. We believe that silver bought at under $20/oz. will prove to be one of the best investments of a lifetime. It must be stated that the current silver price adjusted for inflation is not where the price should be.
There have been enormous structural changes and debt accumulation in major world economies since 2001. We’ve seen investment demand set record after record both in 2013 and again in 2014. Record American Silver Eagle and Canadian Silver Maple Leaf sales were set in 2013 and 2014. China continues to see increasing demand on SGE, and India shattered the record set in 2013 regarding net silver imports, at 7,063 metric tons! In 2001, silver was just starting to be used (in material quantities) in industries that were not involved with photography.
It is true that from 2007 (when the recession started) through 2013, industrial consumption was more or less flat. It was just last year that we saw signs of growth for industrial applications. This will continue this year and, ceteris paribus, it would continue to grow, though realistically speaking, the economy (both U.S and world) has begun to turn, with the mainstream trying to convince everyone that things are great. Before leaving this discussion, one question we continually receive is what “should” the price of gold be in terms of U.S. “dollars,” or any currency for that matter? Your editor wrote an article on this topic over a decade ago, titled “Engineering the Price of Gold.”
This formula is so simple and verifiable that we thought most people in the precious metals community would be aware of it. However, our experience proves differently. So to find the price of gold in dollars, all we need to do is divide the amount of dollars by the amount of gold, giving us the price of gold in dollar terms… M1 from the Federal Reserve is 2,924 billion currently; you can verify via the FRB Web site. The Treasury claims to have 261,498,926 ounces. Does the U.S. Treasury really own or have this gold? We think it is doubtful, but we do not know for certain. The division yields over $11,000 per ounce of gold. When “Engineering the Price of Gold” was written, this division problem produced an answer of $2,500 gold.
Of course, people want to know what that implies for the price of silver and this of course is far more subjective, but if we assume a gold/silver ratio of 60 to 1, for example, then obviously the silver price would be 1/60 that of gold’s. This would produce a price of about 183 “dollars” per ounce with a theoretical gold price of $11,000. In conclusion, even though the precious metals are greatly undervalued at this point in time, there is much chatter about them going lower in price. Certainly this is possible, but the truth remains that knowing the facts, trends, and human nature, we can rest assured that the value of the precious metals will soon reassert themselves and begin moving up in price. The timeframe for that to begin should be before the close of 2015.”
Editor’s Note: We highly recommend The Silver Manifesto written by David Morgan and Chris Marchese which may be the most important “hard money” book to be published in quite some time. Fortunes have been made by those who bought silver around the $5.00 level and paid attention to the call of the top at over $48.00 by David Morgan. Yet the big money lies ahead, according to the authors, as perhaps as much as 90 percent of the move occurs within the last 10 percent of the time. Past performance does not guarantee future results, yet in the last bull market, silver gained over 800 percent from January 1979 to January 1980, dwarfing the gains made from 1964 to 1979. There are factors that produce immense profits and these occur rarely. Investors stand at a unique point in monetary history where the death of paper currencies on a global scale is taking place before their eyes. Because most are frozen into inside-thebox thinking, few investors will ride the next move as silver (and gold) skyrocket in the years ahead.
In fact the primary purpose of this book is to educate the reader as to why there is no way out of the financial morass by the political class or the financial elite. We have reached the point where the savvy few understand what is happening and take action, while the rest are left watching, thinking the precious metals bull market was long dead.
Silver as money throughout history and the U.S. being founded on a silver standard. The authors explore when to expect the next bull market to begin and why. How the 2008 financial crisis has been “papered over” and what to watch for going forward. Is it possible there won’t be enough silver available for investment demand as industrial users scramble to hoard what they need to stay in business? The real supply and demand looking at both industrial and monetary demand. Money and Banking – what fractional reserve banking means to currency and bullion. The best surest method to stay in the profit zone and not worry about the wild price swings. How to pick a mining company – this information is priceless. Most who are taught this methodology have a degree in finance, but we break it down for the average investor. The silver manipulation story – the facts, more facts, and the irrefutable facts. The biggest concern of all investors: The Debt Bomb! We’ve never seen anything like the dire situation we now face, say the authors. Readers can order a copy of The Silver Manifesto for $29.99 from Amazon.com. Orders from Canada, United Kingdom and Australia will be processed directly from The Morgan Report for $29.99 + $19.75 S&H (Canada) (+26.85 S&H Australia) at 480-325- 0230 or The Silver Manifesto